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DETAILED LOOK AT RECENT INDIAN RAINFALL,
CROP AREAS AND FORECAST
The Indian Meteorology Center, recently lowered their forecast for
summer rainfall in key crop growing areas from earlier predictions
of above normal rainfall. They did this, partly, because they
blew the earlier forecast for June, which was below normal in many areas
(see rainfall for June below), and also due to the possibility of El Nino forming.
However, if you look at the table below (IMD’s forecast and actual Monsoon
rains), close scrutiny will show how INACCURATE THEIR FORECASTS
HAVE BEEN OVER THE YEARS
_______________________________________________________________________
(Chart)
JUNE RAINFALL IN KEY INDIAN REGIONS. THOUGH INDIAN MONSOON
STARTED EARLY IN THE SOUTH, AS WE HAVE BEEN SAYING FOR A
MONTH, THE MONSOON WOULD BE SLOW TO ARRIVE IN MOST
CROP AREAS AND THIS HAS SPARKED A “FEEBLE” RALLY IN COTTON
AND HELPED KEEP SUGAR PRICES HIGHER
JUNE MONSOON WAS DRY WITH MOST MAIN REGIONS WELL BELOW NORMAL..DUDES!
HOW ACCURATE HAS THE INDIAN MET CENTER BEEN ON THEIR FORECASTS OVER THE YEARS?
Since 1989, the IMD forecast was fairly good through about the year 1996,
but looked how the accuracy has dropped off in most other years, except
2005 and 2008 which were good forecasts. Goes to show you MORE TECHNOLOGY
WEATHER MODELS, ETC. ARE NOT NECESSARILY A GOOD THING!
The light blue box for 2009 shows their latest forecast of slightly below
normal rainfall, but should this be believed? I don’t trust them, that’s my comment.
The question now becomes, will rainfall be above trendline or much more
below trend? History in at least 6 of the last 9 years would say it would be
the opposite–wetter!–but that is a stupid way to make a weather forecast.
Overall, signals are very mixed in the longer term picture, due to the
-AO index (wetter), warming at Nina 3.4 (drier), SST’s around India (wetter ).
I do see an increase in rainfall in some key areas the next week or two, and
this or may not be important to the cotton and sugar markets, but as far
as predicting above normal trendline yields and general rainfall in all areas–
I will keep my earlier prediction of below normal rainfall in some regions
and probably slightly below normal trendline yields (This is not easy
to predict due to conflicting signals)
CLOSER LOOK AT RECENT RAINFALL
Rainfall deficits in most key sugarcane and cotton regions since
June. In the U.S. a delay in rainfall of a couple-three weeks is
no big deal, in India, it is more important. Planting of cotton is critical
the next couple weeks. I still think between 30-50% of India’s cotton planting
activity will be affected over the next week and may “possibly” improve in
about 10 days or so in the north, but some yield reductions possible
ISN’T MUCH OF INDIA’S MAIN CROP REGIONS IRRIGATED?
About 45% of India’s crop growing areas are irrigated.
So, they depend greatly on the monsoon. While the area under
irrigation is higher than most world countries, it is lower
than almost all major countries, in which agriculture is
a significant part of GNP!
MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERZEALOUS PREDICTING RAINS, AND
WE HAVE NOT BITTEN YET ON GENERAL GOOD RAINS, EVERYWHERE.
FORECAST FROM A WEEK AGO-OVERZEALOUS BY SOME MODELS
THE FORECAST?
Sorry, I am including the GFS forecast of rainfall for the next week
below, which any high school student studying meteorology or even
my cats can supply you with. But for what it is worth, you can see
the increased rainfall forecast in the black circles areas and
below normal in the white (next 7 days)
I believe that Uttar Pradesh is the leading sugarcane
region in India. That area will still have problems over the next week.
While Gujurat cotton areas will see some rain this next week, the left
circle still shows somewhat below normal rainfall and some planting
problems. Further south and east, conditions should improve in
Maharashtra, which produces about 15% of India’s sugarcane.
It appears that over the next week, at least 50% of both India’s cotton
and Sugarcane region will still have below normal rainfall. Not totally
dry, but still some problems areas.
Seasonally, the northern growing areas should see an increase in rainfall
by the 11-15 day period and beyond and most models show this, but
we have to wait and see if models are a little overzealous and some
areas get short changed. If we had a +AO index and cooler SST’s
in the N. Indian Ocean, I would have higher confidence predicting much
more severe problems mid-late July. Without that, my confidence is a
bit lower as we head into mid-late July, but in the short term, I still
see some problem areas and again, as mentioned several times,
want to keep my forecast of slightly below normal trendline
yields for sugarcane and possibly cotton with moderate confidence
RAINFALL FORECAST BY GFS THROUGH JULY 9TH
dry white circles
normal to slightly above black circles